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《大行》摩通:第11批國家藥品集中採購透明度更高 料對製藥公司影響逐漸減弱
摩根大通發表醫藥行業報告表示,上海市旗下上海陽光醫藥採購平台近日發布了《關於開展第11批國家組織藥品集中採購信息填報工作的通知》,啟動了55種藥品的數據提交程序,這些藥品將納入第11批國家集中採購(VBP)。篩選標準明確要求候選藥品必須至少有7家製造商通過一致性評價或其產品被選為參比製劑;在進一步篩選中,僅保留年採購金額超過1億元人民幣的藥品。值得注意的是,《通知》首次附上了68種符合評價標準但未納入第11批VBP的產品名單,並具體說明了排除原因。鑑於近期政策討論旨在防止內捲、優化「最低價中標」模式,且本次VBP中「大藥」數量較少,該行預計第11批VBP的價格下調幅度將相對溫和,對中國大型製藥公司的影響將逐漸減弱。 據EMED數據,55種入選品種在2024年的估計市場規模為500億元人民幣。摩通指,《通知》附上了68種「通過評價但未納入」的產品名單,原因包括未解決的專利爭議、臨床安全性評估不足以及供應穩定性問題,這表明第11批VBP重視知識產權和臨床價值。該行認為,這種公開排除標準的做法是全國藥品採購過程中前所未有的透明度,有助於提高未來全國集中採購可預測性和透明度,利於製造商的決策。 該行指,在前十輪全國VBP中,價格下調幅度通常在50%至60%之間,第十輪VBP創下70%的新高,然而,近期政策包括首次將藥品和耗材採購優化納入政府工作報告以及流傳的《進一步優化藥品採購政策的計劃草案》,表明價格下調不再是未來VBP的唯一焦點。
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