研報掘金丨申萬宏源研究:維持衛星化學“買入”評級,繼續看好C2板塊成長性
申萬宏源研究研報指出,衛星化學預計實現歸母淨利潤27-31.5億元,同比增長31.32%-53.2%;其中25Q2預計實現歸母淨利潤11.3-15.8億元,同比增長9%-53%,環比-28%-1%。業績基本符合我們預期。公司25Q2業績中樞環比有所下降,判斷主要由於油價二季度下行帶來部分產品的價差收窄,以及PDH裝置檢修帶來一定費用提升。25Q2乙烷關稅影響有限,C2價差相對堅挺。產品價差方面,計算25Q2乙烷乙烯價差、苯乙烯價差和乙二醇價差分別爲567 美元/噸、823元/噸、393元/噸,環比分別-43美元/噸、+499元/噸、+126元/噸。公司未來成長性主要依託於α-烯烴綜合利用高端新材料產業園項目(乙烷三四期),目前三期項目有望於2026年下半年內建成投產,2026-2027年逐步兌現業績,而四期項目受中美貿易影響有所推遲。繼續看好公司C2板塊的成長性與C3板塊的景氣修復,維持“買入”評級。
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