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《大行》花旗:第11批全國藥品集中採購顯示官方支持行業創新及理性競爭 料藥價降幅溫和
花旗發表醫藥行業報告表示,國家醫保局於本周二(15日)宣布啟動第11輪國家藥品集採,涉及55種藥品。醫院需在7月16日至7月31日期間報告採購量。醫保局官員強調,本輪集採僅針對仿製藥,不包括創新藥,並優先考慮質量而非價格。為保護行業創新,明確排除以下藥品:1)近期通過談判進入醫保且仍在協議期內的藥品;2)2024年省級採購平台銷售數據顯示市場規模小於1億元人民幣的藥品。該行認為,優化的集採規則顯示政府支持行業創新和理性競爭的態度。該行預計價格降幅將較溫和。總體而言,該行預測對主要藥企的影響有限(<3%)。 為更好地匹配臨床需求並避免過度競爭,競標規則得到優化:1)內地醫院可按藥品品牌而非通用名報告採購量;2)醫院通常需報告至少80%的實際使用量,但可根據臨床需求變化降低比例;3)報告採購量的60-80%將作為承諾採購量,特殊情況下允許更低比例以提供更大的臨床選藥靈活性;4)通過改進計算方法控制企業間價格差異,防止個別低價競標,最低價競標者需證明報價合理性並承諾不低於產品成本價競標。 花旗指與第11輪集採的主要大型藥企藥品,恆瑞醫藥(01276.HK)旗下加多寶羅佔2024年預計銷售額的少於0.5%;翰森製藥(03692.HK)旗下阿戈美拉汀、福沙匹坦、達格列淨、尼達尼布佔2024年預計銷售額的約3%;石藥(01093.HK)包括達格列淨、阿伐曲泊帕、洛索洛芬貼劑等13種藥品佔2024年預計銷售額的約1%;中生製藥(01177.HK)包括奧拉帕尼、達格列淨、頭孢羅齊等11種藥品佔2024年預計銷售額的約1%;石四藥集團(02005.HK)旗下涉及的11種藥品佔2024年預計銷售額的約1.5%;復星醫藥(02196.HK)旗下包括阿伐曲泊帕等10種藥品於2024年預計銷售額的約2%。
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