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中金:化工行業盈利和估值均處低位 行業拐點漸近
中金公司油氣化工2025下半年展望研報指出,目前國內化工產品價格指數、利潤率及行業估值均處於偏低水平。全球化工品需求仍然較弱,但是國內化工行業資本開支持續下降,海外落後產能加快退出,以及政策多次強調“反內卷”等,預計行業供給有望逐步迎來積極變化。目前石化化工行業尚無“反內卷”相關政策預期,但行業整體盈利承壓,企業提升盈利的意願較強,研報認爲其他板塊“反內卷”政策的成功實施有望提振市場對化工企業自發推動“反內卷”的預期,利好石化化工行業估值迴歸。具體投資策略上,看好:化工核心資產(重點看好盈利增長確定性龍頭、底部小品種及高股息);新材料(看好新興產業發展對材料的催化,固態電池及電子氟化液有望迎來發展機遇)。
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