景順趙耀庭:內地上半年GDP略勝預期 投資者對中國股市情緒日益樂觀
景順亞太區環球市場策略師趙耀庭表示,中國上半年國內生產總值(GDP)表現略高於預期,並超出政府全年增長目標。這增長主要由中國與美國達成臨時貿易協議後的強勁出口活動推動。
自2018年以來,中國積極推動出口市場多元化,這有助在全球貿易不確定性持續的環境下保持出口韌性。然而,穩定的全球貿易環境仍然十分重要,因爲中國仍深入植根於全球價值鏈當中,約佔41%的全球價值鏈活動。若下半年有任何貿易協議達成,這將有助令貿易市場變得更明朗,並幫助製造商和出口商更有效地規劃。
在國內方面,6月份零售銷售額按年增長放緩至4.8%,低於5月份的6.4%。固定資產投資增速也從3.7%放緩至2.8%。這些數據顯示,市場下半年可能需要更多政策支持,特別是在刺激家庭消費和穩定房地產市場方面。
投資者對中國股市的情緒日益樂觀。投資者情緒最初受到更強而有力的國內政策支持推動,隨着中國人工智能領域的進一步發展,市場情緒進一步升溫。不過,科技板塊的上漲趨勢不僅限於人工智能領域,電動車和機器人領域也在建立增長動力。儘管近期中國股市上漲,中國股票估值相較於全球和區域內市場仍相對具吸引力。景順預計下半年中國將有更多刺激措施出臺,中美之間或可能達成全面貿易協議,這預示中國市場進一步上行的潛力。
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