《大行》大摩予攜程集團(TCOM.US)評目標價78美元 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,現競爭局勢完全可控下,認為攜程集團(09961.HK)(TCOM.US)現階段無需採取行動。此外,因國內旅遊需求穩定,海外市場份額快速增長均同時進行,大摩予該股「增持」評級,目標價78美元。
大摩指國內競爭風險可控,儘管京東(0618.HK)宣布積極進入OTA(線上旅行社)市場,攜程目前尚未看見當中帶來的營運影響有限。攜程在品牌、服務、產品、供應鏈等多方面具備競爭優勢,定價只是其中一部分。此外,國內夏季旅遊需求有望恢復正常,攜程認為整體趨勢保持健康,並相信酒店平均每日房價(ADR)按年下降幅度應繼續收窄。
出境旅遊方面,大摩表示,雖然航空公司運力在增長,票價趨勢相對較弱,但仍高於疫情前水平。儘管泰國、日本兩大出境目的地尚未復甦,但總體出境旅遊需求仍健康,因為用戶僅選擇不同目的地,攜程作為平台仍受益。
大摩又指,攜程認為其海外投資並非激進,而是基於不同市場回報率的理性決策。其產品和競爭力已處於強勢地位,但需進一步投入營銷資金。攜程在產品領先地位與亞太市場低至中單位數市場份額之間存在差距。但長期來看,將推動增長和盈利能力提升,因為當前投入的資金將有助於獲取更多移動端用戶和品牌知名度。此外,攜程在香港和新加坡等地區已實現盈利,泰國、北亞、日本和韓國的市場份額仍在單位數增長。亞洲國家的增量利潤率已為正,意味著市場份額的進一步增長最終將推動利潤率達收支平衡。在歐洲和中東,業務仍處早期階段,主要依賴機票、住宿及租車搜尋公司Skyscanner的機票銷售。
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