You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行》摩通升零跑汽車(09863.HK)目標價至90元 降小鵬(09868.HK)目標價至100元
摩根大通表示,中國汽車股上半年業績表現料將呈現分化格局,儘管板塊年初至今整體上漲9%(跑輸恆生國企指數18%),但個股表現受新車型、銷量、盈利及政策等因素影響差異顯著。摩通對第二季業績的核心觀點如下: 零跑汽車(09863.HK)有望成為亮點,其第二季銷量按季增長53%且毛利率保持穩定,預計將較市場預期提前一季實現單季盈利,並可能因與Stellantis的碳積分協議錄得額外收益,故上調其2025及26年盈利預測約16%和13%,目標價由82元升至90元。 理想汽車(02015.HK)雖因促銷活動可能導致第二季車輛毛利率小幅下滑,但重點在於即將推出的兩款純電新車型——7月29日上市的i8豪華SUV(預售價約35萬元人民幣)及9月上市的i6中型SUV(約25萬元人民幣),預計將從第三季起推升銷量和盈利能力,其專注家庭用戶與高端市場的差異化定位在當前低端市場激烈競爭中具備優勢。評級「增持」,目標價135元。 長城汽車(02333.HK)因銷量增長及俄羅斯遞延稅返還,預計第二季盈利按季大增90%,但按年仍下滑15%。小鵬汽車(09868.HK)當季車輛毛利率料將小幅改善,市場焦點在於G7等SUV車型銷量能否實現倍增,以及8月推出的新款P7轎跑(對標小米SU7)與第四季首款增程式車型的市場表現。評級「增持」,目標價由122元下調至100元。 合資品牌方面,摩通將上汽集團(600104.SH)評級由「減持」上調至「中性」,因其盈利趨穩且大眾汽車將通過合資公司在2026至27年推出18款新車,目標價由11元人民幣升至15元人民幣;廣汽集團(02238.HK)則可能發布上半年盈利預警。 比亞迪(01211.HK)與吉利(00175.HK)盈利預測均遭下調約10%,前者海外擴張超預期但國內業務拖累整體利潤,後者雖銷量強勁卻面臨盈利能力壓力。比亞迪目標價為180元,評級「增持」。 摩通指出,匯率波動值得關注,人民幣對盧布、雷亞爾、墨西哥比索、歐元及英鎊等主要出口市場貨幣貶值,或為比亞迪、長城、吉利及上汽等出口型車企帶來匯兌收益。長期來看,行業競爭格局將分化為三大陣營:具備成本、規模與垂直整合優勢的領先品牌(如比亞迪、吉利);聚焦智能化的新勢力(如小米(01810.HK)、華為、小鵬、理想);以及戰略收縮或力求重振的在華外資車企(如大眾、豐田等)。(ad/u) ~
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account