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《大行》高盛:投資者對新消費股預期提高 任何短期負面消息都可能引發拋售
高盛發表報告指,第二季中國消費趨勢整體表現平淡,觀察到多個行業,包括白酒、乳製品、運動服飾、化妝品、調味品和預製食品,需求呈現逐季疲軟的趨勢,儘管國家統計局零售銷售增長和618促銷活動的總商品交易額增長顯示出韌性,受惠持續的以舊換新政策支持。 在需求疲軟、渠道轉換阻力持續存在以及企業力求搶佔市場份額和控制庫存的背景下,該行指見到價格下行風險再度浮現,運動服飾、餐飲、白酒、化妝品、零食、乳製品和調味品等行業在第二季加大了促銷力度,價格趨勢也較為疲弱。另一方面,電商平台在食品外賣補貼和即時購物方面的投資推動了相關行業的銷量增長。海外需求則表現參差不齊,受關稅波動影響,總體增長有所放緩。 高盛指,市場對消費者股的偏好依然分化,投資者繼續青睞能在整體需求不確定性中實現獨特增長的新消費品牌,這反映在強勁的股價表現和估值溢價,但觀察到投資者的預期正在提高,且對2026年增長前景的爭論也在增加,認為任何短期負面消息都可能引發沽壓。 對於成熟品牌,高盛指,需求的不確定性一直是投資者的擔憂。展望下半年,該行認為結構性增長機會仍將推動股票表現優於大市。最看好的消費行業包括運動品牌、多元化零售商、寵物食品、飲料和餐飲;最不看好的行業仍是服裝/鞋類代工、家具、投影儀、非必需小家電、珠寶和非超高端白酒。 該行在個股層面,偏好安踏(02020.HK)、美的(000333.SZ)、東鵬飲料(605499.SS)、老鋪黃金(06181.HK)、百勝中國(YUMC.US)、萬洲國際(00288.HK)、青島啤酒(00168.HK)、古茗(01364.HK)、康師傅(00322.HK)、巨子生物(02367.HK)、名創優品(MNSO.US)、乖寶寵物(301498.SZ)和華潤飲料(02460.HK)。均獲「買入」名單。
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