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《大行》大摩降濰柴動力(02338.HK)目標價至17.5元 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利研究報告指,預期濰柴動力(02338.HK)(000338.SZ)第二季度業績疲弱,主要受液化天然氣重型卡車(HDT)銷售低迷拖累, 但下半年有望逐步復甦。大缸徑引擎( Large-bore engine)需求今年迄今保持穩健,全年指引不變。 大摩表示,受到產品組合不利影響,預估2025年第二季度HDT引擎收入將按年下降,相關部門收入下降約十幾個百分點,上半年收入將按年下降約10%。另外,管理層預期非重卡引擎部門在第二季度的收入和利潤率與去年同期持平。因此,大摩預計2025年上半年總引擎收入按年下降1%。 大缸徑引擎( Large-bore engine)方面,大摩認爲相關業務進展順利,次季度月銷量與首季相近,約800臺,意味着2025年上半年約5,000臺,其中AIDC發電機出貨量佔總出貨量約10%,按年增長顯着。濰柴動力管理層預計未來兩年全球AIDC發電機需求將按年增長10%至20%,濰柴年銷量預計增至2,000至2,500臺。 新能源業務更新方面,濰柴動力管理層認爲今年收入按年翻倍至30億元人民幣是可實現的,低於年初指引的50億元人民幣。2024年淨利潤率約爲4%,管理層預計2025年將與去年同期保持相對穩定。 大摩預估濰柴動2025年第二季度收入按年下降4%,淨利潤按年下降8%。由於重卡部門產品組合不利被大缸徑引擎佔比提升和成本優化所抵消,毛利率可能保持穩定。大摩將2025、2026、2027年的淨利潤預估分別下調6%、10%、10%。 大摩基於12倍2025年預期市盈率,將港股目標價下調8%至17.5港元,大致符合其8年曆史平均一年期市盈率11倍,相較於2025年預期超過10%的經常性淨利潤增長,認爲具吸引力,且股息收益率超過5%,評級「增持」。
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