《大行》中銀國際:福耀玻璃(03606.HK)次季淨利潤有望創新高 升目標價至72元 維持「買入」評級
中銀國際發表研究報告指,預計福耀玻璃(03606.HK)次季收入按年增長13%至14%,達到107至108億元人民幣(下同),主要得益於國內汽車玻璃收入提速(預計按年增長超15%)以及海外汽車玻璃銷售的穩步增長。
該行預計福耀玻璃次季度毛利率較一季度35.4%改善超過1個百分點,主要得益於規模效應的提升、主機廠額外返利壓力減輕,以及純鹼等原材料和運費下降帶來的成本節約。加上歐元兌人民幣的大幅升值估計帶來超過3億元匯兌收益,並預計第二季度公司淨利潤有望達到25億至26億元,再創季度新高。
海外基地盈利能力方面,中銀國際料有望按季進一步改善。美國基地得益於一期產能利用率和營運效率的提升,以及二期工廠的減虧,預計二季度經營利潤率較一季度提升;同時全年汽車玻璃出貨量將達到510萬套,營業利潤率有望超過年初設定的13%目標。歐洲SAM預計二季度營業虧損將從一季度的290萬歐元收窄,向盈虧平衡目標進一步靠近。
中銀國際維持福耀玻璃收入預測不變,但將2025至2026年的淨利潤預測上調5%至11%。到88億元或92億元人,以反映成本降幅好於預期、額外的匯兌收益以及海外基地盈利能力的改善。在中國汽車零部件廠商中,中銀認為福耀玻璃通過海外產能和出口供應的靈活佈局率先實現海外擴張,同時近十年公司積極在美國完成產能建設,這意味著在當前地緣環境下,公司較大多數零部件公司在經營上具備更強的韌性和抗風險能力。中銀國際維持福耀玻璃「買入」評級,目標價從65港元上調至72港元(基於2025年20倍預期市盈率)。該行認為,公司接下來公佈二季度業績或將成為扭轉其股價年初至今表現落後的催化劑。
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