中金:鋁材消費或出現階段性收縮 預計價格將小幅下跌
中金研報稱,根據SMM統計,2025年6月電解鋁產量360.9萬噸,同比增長1.57%。冶金級氧化鋁產量725.8萬噸,同比增長6.08%。未鍛軋鋁及鋁材出口同比下降19.84%至48.9萬噸。6月鋁錠與鋁棒均出現超預期去庫,帶動現貨升水走強,SMM A00 鋁升貼水6月均價錄得98.5 元/噸左右,環比上漲48.5元/噸。但步入七月,我們建議關注“反內卷”對終端需求的影響。汽車、光伏組件“反內卷”行業均是鋁下遊需求大戶,鋁材消費或出現階段性收縮,疊加倫鋁庫存逐步得到補充,我們預計價格將小幅下跌。
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