行業寒冬？白酒股慘遭"業績殺"，多家酒企淨利腰斬
多家酒企業績變臉！
昨日晚間，水井坊、酒鬼酒、順鑫農業、金種子酒多家酒企公佈半年度業績預告顯示，營收和淨利潤大幅下滑，甚至出現虧損。
今日白酒股集體走低，金種子酒、酒鬼酒跌超4%，皇臺酒業、水井坊、*ST巖石、迎駕貢酒跌超3%，順鑫農業、捨得酒業等跟跌。
上半年業績大降
2025年上半年，白酒行業整體處於深度調整階段，消費場景如商務宴請和宴席需求疲軟，導致部分企業營收和淨利潤下滑。
儘管行業整體承壓，但部分頭部企業如貴州茅臺、五糧液等仍保持相對穩定的增長，部分次高端及中小酒企如金種子酒、酒鬼酒等則面臨較大的業績壓力，淨利潤大幅下降甚至虧損。
昨日晚間，酒鬼酒、金種子酒、順鑫農業、水井坊、*ST巖石五家酒類上市公司發佈了2025半年度業績預告。
具體來看：
酒鬼酒預計2025年上半年淨利潤僅800萬-1200萬元，同比暴跌90.1%-93.4%；營收約5.6億元，同比下滑43%，創近三年新低。
順鑫農業預計2025年上半年淨利潤爲1.55億元-1.95億元，同比下降53.85%-63.32％。
水井坊預計上半年淨利潤爲1.05億元，同比下降56.52%；營收14.98億元，同比下降12.84%；預計上半年銷售量增加543千升，同比增加14.54%，銷售量全部來自中高檔酒。
金種子酒預計2025半年度實現歸屬於母公司所有者的淨利潤爲-9000萬元到-6000萬元，歸母扣非淨利潤爲-9500萬元到-6500萬元。
*ST巖石預計2025年半年度實現歸屬於上市公司股東的淨利潤爲虧損5000萬元~7500萬元，與上年同期相比，同比減虧3.07%~35.38%。
板塊仍在築底
站在當下時點，如何看待白酒板塊投資價值？
浙商證券研報指出，當前白酒板塊基本面仍在築底，但由於股價與預期表現往往領先於基本面，因此我們認爲當前白酒板塊下行空間有限，具備一定的中期配置價值，主要基於以下兩點，建議密切關注中秋國慶表現。
1）謹慎假設下，由於預收款充足，頭部酒企業績下滑幅度或有限；2）分紅率持續提升後，橫向對比當前頭部酒企股息率具備性價比。
開源證券表示，本輪白酒行情下探，觸發因素在於預期之外的禁酒令進一步壓縮白酒消費場景，需求持續下移。當前行業仍在尋底，考慮到禁酒令同時打擊餐飲，影響範圍較廣，我們判斷糾偏動作應不會太久，下半年白酒應能看到階段性底部位置。
從報表角度，考慮到二季度白酒需求受影響較大，中報後市場大概率普遍下修盈利預測。開源證券認爲下調業績並非壞事，如果酒企能夠趁機主動降低增長目標，加速產業庫存去化，年內看到白酒需求觸底，報表出清，反而會加大市場後續信心。當前白酒已經可以關注並考慮逐漸佈局。
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