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《大行》美銀證券微升長建(01038.HK)目標價至55.1元 料中期盈利按年持平
阿思達克 07-15 12:36
美銀證券表示,長江基建(01038.HK)將於8月13日公布2025年上半年業績,該行預期中期盈利將與去年同期持平,約為43億港元,主要受三大因素相互抵消影響:英鎊兌港元按年升值2%但澳元貶值4%;去年下半年併購的Phoenix Energy開始貢獻收益;以及澳洲業務因稅制改革導致利潤出現高個位數下滑。管理層預計中期與末期股息將各按年增加1港仙。值得留意的是,英國電網業務(UKPN)下半年利潤可能因異常調整周期的高基數效應而回落。 該行已將模型調整反映以下變數:調升英鎊及澳元匯率假設、提高英國配氣網絡(NGN)、威爾士水務(WWU)及南澳電網(SAPN)的准許回報率(RoRE),並相應上調2025至2027年每股盈利預測2%至5%,目標價隨之由54.4港元微升至55.1港元。雖然港元走弱及監管重置有利盈利,但考量其5%股息收益率與美國10年期國債4.4%收益率相比,估值合理,維持「中性」評級。
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