《大行》美銀證券降潤燃(01193.HK)目標價至21元 評級「中性」
美銀證券發表研究報告指,該行與華潤燃氣(01193.HK)進行電話會議後,預計其今年上半年盈利下降約38%至21.5億港元,原因包括:營運數據疲弱;更多成本分配從下半年轉向上半年。但美銀證券指看到業績後利好因素,包括華潤燃氣表示維持中期及全年每股派息穩定,意味着4.7%的股息收益率,以及擬在9月初至12月底期間回購約3%已發行股份等。美銀預計潤燃全年盈利僅下降5%,重申「中性」評級。
美銀證券指出,華潤燃氣今年前五個月,燃氣銷量按年下降1%,其中住宅用氣增長4%,工業用氣下降3%至4%,商業用氣下降2%。每立方米利潤按年上升1分至0.5元人民幣。接駁量按年下降20%。綜合服務收入按年下降8%。綜合能源收入增長高達十幾個百分點。5月燃氣銷量按年下降1%。關稅相關的緊急訂單貢獻不大。反腐行動影響餐飲業需求。房地產相關行業需求下降最多,佔銷量組合約15%。非供暖季燃氣成本按年下降約10分人民幣,大部分傳導至工商業客戶。
該行提及,華潤燃氣對下半年展望保持謹慎,因宏觀經濟疲弱及燃氣成本具韌性。除員工成本外,其他費用在全年基礎上將保持穩定。
美銀考慮到華潤燃氣銷量增長減少;綜合服務增長減少;銷售及行政費用增加,因此將2025至2027年每股盈利預測下調6%至9%,並將基於市淨率及現金流折現法的目標價由原先23.5港元下調至21港元。
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