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《大行》平安證券:「反內捲」行情擴散 建議關注三條主線
平安證券表策略報告表示,國內方面,「反內捲」持續推進落地,上證指數突破3,500點後市場成交進一步放量,A股「賺錢」效應增強,上證指數上漲1.1%,創業板指和中證1000指數漲幅均約2.4%;行業方面,近九成申萬一級行業指數上漲,房地產行業漲幅最大(6.1%),鋼鐵、非銀金融、建築材料、計算機、傳媒、電力設備等也有不錯收益(平均漲幅2.5%至4.5%),銀行、煤炭等則有小幅回落。 海外方面,美國總統特朗普再公佈多項新關稅政策,對歐盟、加拿大、墨西哥、巴西等國的關稅升級。7月7日至12日期間,特朗普發文宣布一系列關稅新政,調整後的關稅稅率將從8月1日起執行。其中,將對從歐盟、墨西哥進口的商品徵收30%關稅,對加拿大商品徵收35%關稅,對巴西商品徵收50%關稅,稅率均較4月2日對等關稅1.0版有所提高;對日本、韓國商品徵收25%關稅,相比1.0版變化不大。此外,還將對所有進口到美國的銅徵收50%的關稅。整體來看,特朗普關稅政策反覆多變,後續仍需密切跟蹤美國與各貿易夥伴的談判進展。 綜合來看,雖然外部不確定性有擾動風險,但國內政策支持與產業升級的積極變化繼續累積,「反內捲」持續推進帶動困境反轉預期升溫以及政策博弈擴散,部分公司中報業績景氣向上有助於提振相關板塊信心,整體有望支撐權益市場維持震盪偏強走勢。結構上,建議關注三條主線:一是內外需共振下景氣向上的科技成長(軍工/半導體/創新藥等);二是受益於「反內捲」催化且行業景氣有望改善的新能源、建材、傳統週期等板塊;三是受益於金融改革開放且兼具高股息優勢的金融板塊(銀行/非銀等)。
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