《大行》大摩升極兔速遞(01519.HK)目標至9.5元 維持「與大市同步」評級
摩根士丹利研究報告指,今年採用第三方物流(3PL)的TikTok Shop正積極搶佔市佔率,令極兔速遞-W(01519.HK)次季經營表現超預期。該行料極兔今年上半年經調整淨利達約2.35億美元,而去年同期為6,300萬美元。
雖然東南亞增長前景更樂觀,但該行仍有疑慮,包括在貿易摩擦下,東南亞電商市場能否維持強勁增長、「電商+自營物流」與「電商+第三方物流」的格局轉變,以及當TikTok Shop已貢獻極兔東南亞逾五成單量時,公司的議價能力會否改變。
該行上調極兔速遞2025至27年各年經調整淨利預測分別12%、24%與34%,反映東南亞市次季超預期表現及後續年度增長預測獲上調,同時下調中國業務盈利復甦預期,因競爭加劇及次季表現未達標。目標價由7.1元升至9.5元,但維持「與大市同步」評級,因當前股價對應2025年預測自由現金流收益率僅2.4%,且預期中國業務短期內或難以實現自由現金流轉正。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.