《大行》花旗看好老鋪黃金(06181.HK)增長前景 目標價1,084元 啟動30天上行催化觀察
花旗發表研究報告,指近期檢查了老鋪黃金(06181.HK)天貓店和北京SKP店的銷售表現,估算兩者合計貢獻老鋪約40%的收入,並認為它們是表現最佳的渠道,因為促銷力度高於其他渠道。花旗預計老鋪黃金今年上半年收入將增長198%,達到105億元人民幣(下同),淨利潤將增長260%,達到21億元。2025年及26年全年,花旗預計淨利潤將分別增長220%和37%,達到47.27億元和64.59億元。
該行表示,經過上周股價調整後,該股目前以預測今明兩年市盈率分別30倍及22倍交易,對該股維持「買入」評級,並啟動30天上行催化劑觀察。花旗又基於預測2025年市盈率36倍,對應0.34倍市盈增長率,將目標價定為1,084港元。花旗指,鑒於其快速增長前景,受益於強勁的產品競爭力和黃金價格上漲,認為老鋪黃應享有較全球奢侈品同行更高的估值溢價。
報告指出,預計老鋪黃金2025年上半年線上銷售額達23億元,按年增長500%,線下銷售增長160%。但預計毛利率由2024年上半年的41.3%輕微下降至2025年上半年的40.5%,因產品價格上漲幅度低於黃金價格且存在時間滯後。此外,強勁銷售帶來經營槓桿效應,預計營運費用增長110%,銷售及管理費用佔銷售比率將由18.9%降至13.5%,淨利潤率預計由2024年上半年的16.7%提升至2025年上半年的20.3%。
花旗表示,老鋪黃金中期業績強勁,潛在的正面利潤將成為股價的上行催化劑,預計其將擴大其市場份額,同店銷售強勁增長,並伴隨新店開設及經營槓桿效應。花旗認為,儘管自2024年6月上市以來股價大幅上漲,但強勁的基本面將支持進一步估值重評。
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