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天風證券:政策紅利持續加持下 銀行股或成爲投資“新寵兒”
天風證券研報表示,第一,從資金面來看,國家金融監管總局上調了權益資產配置比例上限,以及國新辦發佈會上要求的“力爭大型國有保險公司從2025年起每年新增保費的30%用於投資A股”,在目前的“資產荒”加劇疊加以上政策引導,險資配置的確定性增強。第二,截止2024年末,主動權益類基金持倉銀行板塊權重爲3.35%,而以滬深300爲例的基準指數中銀行板塊權重達15.71%,理論上銀行股配置仍有12.36%的空間。當前銀行股價表現雖然和行業基本面可能有所“背離”,而未來銀行投資策略更需“見微知著”,即更需重視行業基本面的邊際向好跡象:首先,負債成本預計將持續改善。其次,資產收益預計將趨於平穩。最後,資產質量預計將維持穩健。基於以上,優質地區中小銀行中重點推薦成都銀行、常熟銀行;國股行中重點推薦農業銀行、中國銀行、郵儲銀行。
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