高盛警告歐股或低估美國關稅風險 企業盈利遭侵蝕
高盛高級歐洲股票策略師Sharon Bell表示,歐洲股市近期升勢或反映出投資者低估美國關稅所帶來的潛在風險,短期內或對相關關稅風險顯得過於自滿。
她解釋,歐洲股市近期未受貿易戰升溫明顯拖累,但歐盟與美國的貿易談判仍陷於僵局,雙方在汽車與農業等議題上仍未達成協議,但歐洲Stoxx 600指數周一僅微跌,反映市場未有預期30%關稅有機會成真,否則歐洲股市跌幅應較目前更大。
她亦警告歐元走強對歐洲企業構成另一壓力,特別是對出口導向企業的盈利構成侵蝕。她預計,歐洲企業今年整體盈利增長將大致持平。
根據彭博資訊數據,分析師預計MSCI歐洲指數成份股企業第二季盈利將按年下跌4.8%,為自去年首季以來最大跌幅。
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