東亞維持今年恆指目標26,000點 料短線Hibor或反彈
東亞銀行發表第三季投資展望,預期港股與A股可延續估值修復趨勢,但潛在上修空間已較前期收窄,維持恆指預測市盈率目標於11.3倍及其2025年目標價於26,000點不變,看好人工智能概念、服務及體驗式消費、券商和原材料板塊的中資股。
東亞銀行財富管理處高級投資策略師陳偉聰表示,目前內地和香港股市估值水平並不特別高,但仍需要更多催化劑,例如中美完全達成貿易協議、中國經濟轉型及政策支持持續,及AI發展有新突破。他提及,早前Hibor落至低位情況在第三季開始已有些轉變,加上港匯重上7.85水平,觸發弱方兌換保證,短線Hibor或會有反彈。
另外,該行指,隨着商業週期步入尾聲,預計美國經濟將進入減速期,對全年經濟增長預測僅1.2%。面對需求放緩,預料美聯儲在下半年重啓減息,預計9月及12月將各減息25個基點。
金價方面,該行第三季黃金目標價3,600美元,潛在催化劑包括關稅風險、減息、央行購買需求等。
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