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《大行》摩通:多晶硅價格回升或利好光伏玻璃龍頭企業
摩根大通發表研究報告指,中國光伏行業現貨價格近期出現反彈,其中N型多晶硅價格按週迴升6.3%至每公斤約35.6元人民幣,在政府推動反內卷的政策背景下,原料價格正向企業邊際生產成本每公斤約48元人民幣。摩通預期,若價格持續回升至邊際成本線,屆時具有成本優勢的多晶硅供應商及光伏玻璃龍頭企業將最能受惠。 摩通指出,當前光伏產業鏈中僅多晶硅和光伏玻璃仍存在明顯成本差異,以多晶硅爲例,估算若現貨價回升至每公斤48元,大全新能源(DQ.US)將有望實現盈虧平衡,通威股份(600438.SH)則可達實現約5%的股本回報率(ROE)。摩通又指,預測光伏玻璃龍頭企業較邊際生產者有約15%的成本優勢,因此預期信義光能(00968.HK)及福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)ROE可達7%,目前對信義光能及福萊特玻璃評級均爲「中性」。
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