《大行》招商證券國際:下半年車企市場有望觸底回升 首推吉利(00175.HK)理想(02015.HK)和小鵬(09868.HK)
招商證券國際研究報告指,6月份車廠衝量銷售數據普遍較強,預計7月下旬高頻數據及市場情緒將觸底。內地政府對車企「內捲」實施常態化監管,料吉利汽車(00175.HK)旗下品牌銀河、零跑汽車(09863.HK)、小鵬汽車(09868.HK)(XPEV.US)是相對受益者。招商首推增速較高且估值較低的吉利汽車,其次為理想汽車(02015.HK)(LI.US)和小鵬汽車。
該行表示,工信部7月開通重點車企踐行賬期承諾反映窗口,受理中小企業關於重點車企踐行貸款支付周期承諾及落實《保障中小企業款項支付條例》不力等問題。重點監管車企是否踐行60天支付期限,支付期限起算時間是否合理,是否強制中小企業接受商票等問題。此外,上月官方約談重點車企後,多數車企承諾60天賬期。該行認為,此新政策是政府對行業內捲強監管的延續,進入執行細節落地階段,有效遏制價格競爭日益激烈的趨勢。
該行指,從市佔率及銷量角度看,強化內捲監管短期內對比亞迪(01211.HK)(002594.SZ)提升國內市佔率偏負面,但公司通過加速出海彌補。主力價位相近的競爭品牌如吉利銀河、零跑、小鵬部分車型是該政策的相對受益者,產品策略更主動,通過快速推出新車型提升市場份額。隨著強監管落地,市場對價格戰失控擔憂基本消化,6月車企銷量普遍較強,半年衝量透支導致7月上旬高頻數據偏弱,下旬市場情緒有望觸底回升。
招商證券國際表示,車企行業首推吉利汽車,上半年銷量目標300萬輛,市場信心充足。其次看好理想汽車,再次看好小鵬汽車。至於行業龍頭比亞迪,短期受強監管負面衝擊,預計出海加速及中報業績釋放後市場情緒改善。其他新勢力看好小米(01810.HK)的小米汽車、華為系問界,分別受爆款小米YU7上市及M8/M7銷量驅動。
汽車零部件方面,招商證券國際推薦福耀玻璃(03606.HK)、敏實集團(00425.HK),前者具高行業壁壘及強定價能力,後者進入人形機器人新賽道推動估值修復。
智駕供應鏈方面,招商證券國際推薦地平線機器人(09660.HK)、禾賽(HSAI.US),分別為國產智駕SoC晶片龍頭及全球領先且率先盈利的激光雷達龍頭。
機器人主機廠方面,招商證券國際推薦優必選(09880.HK),作為中國人形機器人行業領先者,全球進入最多工廠實訓;以及越疆(02432.HK),作為中國協作機器人龍頭,出貨量全球第二、中國第一。
以下是招商證券國際對中資汽車股的投資評級及目標價:
股份|評級|目標價
吉利汽車(00175.HK)|買入|27.5元
比亞迪(01211.HK)|買入|170元
小鵬汽車(09868.HK)|買入|115元
中升控股(00881.HK)|買入|24元
福耀玻璃(03606.HK)|買入|73元
理想汽車(02015.HK)|買入|138元
長城汽車(02333.HK)|買入|19元
敏實集團(00425.HK)|買入|34元
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