《大行》美銀證券:紫金(02899.HK)次季淨利潤略超預期 銅金價上揚疊加黃金產量提升
美銀證券表示,紫金礦業(02899.HK)發佈2025年上半年正面盈利預告,淨利潤232億元人民幣,按年升54%,意味2025年第二季度淨利潤達130億元人民幣,按年升48%,按季升27%,略超該行預期。
展望未來,因卡庫拉礦停產,Ivanhoe將卡庫拉礦2025年產量指引從52萬至58萬噸,下調至37萬至42萬噸。紫金亦同步下調2025年銅產量預期至107萬至108萬噸(原計劃115萬噸),與2024年水平大體持平。然而,黃金產量料通過整合Akyem金礦及持續收購達成指引。儘管特朗普宣佈對進口銅徵收50%關稅後LME銅價小幅回落,在電網投資推動2025年下半年供需緊平衡下,銅價保持堅挺。
該行全球大宗商品團隊預測2025年銅/金均價分別爲9,557美元/噸,按年升4%,以及3,356美元/盎司,按年升40%。考慮黃金產量增長、銅金價格前景向好及成本管控穩健,維持紫金「買入」評級,目標價23元。
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