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《大行》國泰君安國際報告:非美元穩定幣已具擴展基礎 料未來穩定幣市場或呈「雙軌並行」發展
阿思達克 07-10 15:15
國泰君安國際近日發表題為「來自泰達幣的啟示:非美元穩定幣能否破局?」的數字資產研究報告表示,隨著全球主要國家及經濟體穩定幣監管框架的落地,全球數字資產市場也正在經歷歷史性的變革。一方面,穩定幣的野蠻生長期可能告一段落;另一方面,穩定幣市場的格局也或將迎來轉變,即USDC會否在美國監管機構的「護航」下迎來黃金時代,而泰達幣在新監管體系下又該何去何從?與此同 時,人民幣國際化可否借助離岸人民幣穩定幣機遇實現突破式發展? 該行指美國穩定幣合規化對泰達幣構成嚴峻挑戰,尤其在主流金融體系和機構市場。其市場份額和影響力將不可避免地被合規穩定幣侵蝕。然而,在監管真空地帶、法幣失效區以及加密原生生態的核心流動性層,泰達幣憑藉其網絡效應和先發優勢,仍將保有相當規模的「離岸生存空間」,但增長勢頭可能 顯著放緩,且面臨持續的信任與合規壓力。 需要指出的是,泰達幣的市場策略本質是「技術中性」,它不挑戰美元體系,而是做美元體系的「數字管道工」。泰達幣的發展歷程為非美元穩定幣 提供了經驗,通過「數碼化路徑」發展非美元穩定幣不失為一條可行路徑。 經過多年發展,非美元穩定幣已經具備擴展基礎,而今年以來的「去美元化」趨勢也為非美穩定幣提供了新的契機。從現有穩定幣市場的監管框架以及發展現狀看,未來穩定幣市場很有可能呈現「雙軌並行」的發展特徵。一方面,以美國本土合規穩定幣為主導,服務於受強監管的傳統金融和機構市場,強調安全、透明和法律保障。另一方面,泰達幣可能繼續在特定區域和加密原生生態中扮演重要角色;同時,依托不同主權貨幣的合規離岸穩定幣將加速發展,服務於特定的地緣經濟圈和多元化需求。 從市場構成看,對泰達幣而言,美國穩定幣合規化浪潮既是市場份額的挑戰,也可能成為其深耕特定「離岸」生態的契機。與此同時,非美元穩定幣也可以從泰達幣身上尋找到自己的出圈可能。
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