《大行》高盛:反奢靡浪費政策或衝擊服務業及高端消費行業
高盛發表研究報告指,中國當局印發《厲行節約反對浪費條例》,要求堅持「從嚴從簡」、帶頭過「緊日子」,勤儉辦一切事業及降低公務活動,是自2014年以來首個國家層面的反浪費政策,明確禁止公務用餐使用酒類、香煙及高檔菜餚,各省政府已於6月底前完成相關部署。
該行估算,核心受影響群體(國企/公共機構/公務員)及延伸關聯群體(民企/國企員工)餐飲消費佔2025年餐飲零售總額16.7%,假設今年6月至12月相關群體消費縮減10%至30%,將導致全年餐飲零售增速較基準預測的4.8%放緩約0.9個百分點。該行預期苟政策執行力度超出預期且持續較久,可能進一步衝擊服務業及禮品等高端消費行業。
相應地高盛下調白酒行業評級,認為渠道去庫存風險將延長行業周期,在居家消費替代效應下較看好啤酒與調味品板塊。
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