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《大行》大摩料即時零售投資將拖累阿里(BABA.US)首財季經調整EBITA下跌16%
阿思達克 07-10 10:20
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,預期受即時零售業務投資約100億元人民幣的拖累,對阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)2026財年首季經調整EBITA將按年下跌16%,淘天集團及本地生活業務EBITA合計預計下跌20%。隨着投資力度加大,大摩認爲阿里第二財季爲投資高峯期,相關投資額或倍增至200億元人民幣,令兩大業務EBITA跌幅擴大至逾40%。 大摩指出,阿里雲首財季收入增速有望加快至22%,對比上季爲18%,利潤率維持8%水平,雖然美國收緊GPU出口管制,相信阿里的多元化供應策略可應對,資本開支仍將增加。該行預測集團首財季整體收入料增長2%,若剔除資產剝離影響將錄雙位數增幅。 該行將阿里2026財年收入預測下調4.4%,經調整EBITA預測下調25.7%,2027財年則分別下調4.1%及17.5%,維持「增持」評級,目標價從180美元下調至150美元。大摩表示在電商板塊中仍較看好阿里,其次偏好美團(03690.HK),然後爲京東(09618.HK)(JD.US)。
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