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景順趙耀庭:美國關稅實施日期延遲爲進一步談判提供機會 美元疲軟爲亞洲各央行放寬政策添靈活性
阿思達克 07-09 17:46
景順亞太區環球市場策略師趙耀庭表示,美國關稅實施日期的最新延遲爲進一步談判提供機會,美國要求貿易夥伴作出更多讓步,包括日本和南韓在內的14個國家將被徵收25%到40%的關稅。越南最近與美國達成了一項貿易協定,避免了最初提出的46%關稅,許多商品的關稅現僅爲20%,但貨物轉運將被徵收40%的關稅。他認爲,美國與越南的貿易協定可能表明了一種基本的經濟務實態度。 趙耀庭指,在收到美國總統特朗普關稅信的國家中,日本和韓國是對美國出口最多的國家,出口總額分別爲1,480億美元和1,315億美元。日本和韓國都面臨着巨大的本土政治阻力,令達成貿易協定特別困難。他預計平均有效關稅率將在中至高位之間,這可能會增加美國增長的阻力並推高通脹。 他指出,亞洲股市的價格走勢較不一,這可能反映了關稅實施日期延遲的利好消息與不明朗關稅持續存在之間的平衡。美元變化不大,較爲有限的變動可能反映了多次貿易紛爭後,市場預期出現逆轉。雖然地緣政治局勢緊張和貿易紛爭持續,亞洲新興市場今年表現良好,美元疲軟可能是最重要的市場原因。 另外,新興市場通過美元化的出口或進口價格廣泛受美元影響。大多數新興市場的投資流入是以美元爲基礎的進口地區,這令他們擁有美元化的負債。如果美國最終對亞洲國家徵收更高關稅,亞太地區似乎更有能力承受由此帶來的阻力。疲軟的美元應該給亞洲各國央行更大的靈活性來放寬政策,以支持其本國經濟,而不必過度擔心貨幣貶值。
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