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《大行》花旗:恆地(00012.HK)短期股價可能回落 關注派息
阿思達克 07-09 16:15
花旗發表報告,指恆地(00012.HK)擬發行80億港元的可轉換債券(CB),再融資似乎是其每年估計70億至80億港元資本支出(包括中環3號地盤:約20億港元)的解決方案,但相較於其借款(2024年12月為860億港元)或股東貸款(660億港元)規模不大。其0.5%的票面利率相較於2024年4.2%的平均融資成本具有競爭力,估計可節省約3億港元的年度利息支出(約佔利潤的3%),部分抵銷最多4.4%的每股盈利攤薄影響。儘管如此,該行認為此次CB發行可能暗示對股權成本的低估,這對某些少數股東可能更為重要。此外,其轉換價格較上次收盤溢價27%看似合理,值得注意的是,其股價上次高於36港元的時期為2021年5月至7月(最高點:38.5港元;收益率4.7%)。 花旗表示,由於CB壓力及上半年利潤下降,預計恆地短期內股價將出現調整。投資者對進一步發行可轉換債券或股權融資的擔憂,亦為行業帶來壓力,特別是對較小型企業的信貸收緊。 花旗預期,恆地2025年上半年利潤按年下降30%至40%;中期每股股息穩定於50港仙。該行預測恆地全年每股股息穩定,基於股息後現金流達收支平衡。維持恆地「買入」評級,目標價25.6元。
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