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《大行》平安證券:反內捲行情處「預期催化」階段 關注光伏、建築材料、鋼鐵及部分輕工紡服行業
平安證券發表題為《如何看待「反內捲」的市場影響?——對比供給側改革經驗》報告表示,近期內地政府對「內捲式」競爭的重視度明顯提升,從去年7月政治局會議首提要強化行業自律,防止「內捲式」惡性競爭,到中央經濟工作會議指出綜合整治「內捲式」競爭,規範地方政府和企業行為,再到今年7月中央財經委員會第六次會議強調「依法依規治理企業低價無序競爭,引導企業提升產品品質,推動落後產能有序退出」。目前政策導向主要分兩類,一類是政府層面發佈多項綱領性文件,推進全國統一大市場建設、完善價格機制與監管審查機制等;一類是產業層面引導企業加強自律、公平競爭、提升產品品質、推動落後產能有序退出等。 歷史對比:與2016至2017年供給側改革行政化手段加碼上游週期行業去產能去產量不同,本輪主要以市場化手段引導中下游新興行業減少低價競爭。第一,本輪「內捲式」競爭問題主要集中在光伏、鋰電池、新能源汽車、互聯網平台等偏中下游環節的新興行業,且民企較多,另外也涉及以鋼鐵、水泥等為代表的部分中上游原材料行業,上一輪改革的重點在於鋼鐵、煤炭、有色、水泥等傳統週期行業,且國企較多,行政化手段的執行約束力相對更強。 第二,本輪核心矛盾在於企業低價無序競爭、地方保護與過度投資;上一輪則主要是產能過剩、國企槓桿高企以及環保污染與安全壓力等問題,困難的嚴峻性和應對的緊迫性相對更強。 平安證券指展望後續,對比上一輪供給側改革「預期催化-價格驅動-業績驅動」行情經驗,該行認為當前處於本輪「內捲式」行情的「預期催化」階段,目前產能利用率較低、盈利壓力較大的行業企業自發減產的動力和意願可能更強,建議關注以光伏為代表的電力設備行業、以建築材料/鋼鐵等為代表的中上游原材料行業以及部分輕工紡服相關行業。 更長期視角看,對標上一輪供給側改革的「價格驅動」和「業績驅動」相關的第二、三階段行情,「反內捲」行情持續演繹依賴於政策力度持續加碼以及行業基本面的改善,特別是行政化手段引導去產量、去產能的政策效果相對更強,後續仍需密切跟蹤觀察。(wl/u) ~
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