大行評級|麥格理:美國對銅徵收進口關稅令銅價下跌 呼籲等待更佳投資時機
麥格理髮表研究報告指,如果美國對銅徵收50%的關稅,可能會使全球銅市場動盪。自今年2月以來,美國銅價上漲,以套利潛在的關稅影響。因此,美國庫存攀升,Comex庫存爲9.6萬噸,場外庫存爲26至30萬噸,四個月內總庫存爲40萬噸,或每月10萬噸。關稅可阻止每月10萬噸的過剩存貨流入美國,將其推到美國以外的市場。該行估算,如果銅價每下跌1%,洛陽鉬業及紫金礦業今年的盈利料將分別跌約1.5%和1%。該行建議,當銅價回軟被完全計入股價後,纔是投資中國銅業的較佳時機。
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