You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行》瑞銀:金蝶國際(00268.HK)有望迎盈利拐點 升目標價至21.8元
阿思達克 07-10 11:08
瑞銀研究報告指,金蝶國際(00268.HK)經過多年向訂閱制SaaS模式的轉型,有望在2025年實現自2020年以來的首個盈利年度,實現盈利拐點,反映了金蝶持續提升的營運效率及強大的產品能力,推動訂閱服務年經常性收入(ARR)在2024年分別達到雲端收入及總收入的67%和55%。同時,憑藉在中型企業市場的領先份額,金蝶已推出初步標準化的人工智能(AI)產品。瑞銀預計金蝶的總收入增速將從2025年的13%加快至2027年的18%,主要受益於訂閱收入的持續增長及AI的放大效應。 瑞銀看好金蝶持續推動訂閱模式,甚至覆蓋大型企業客戶,這得益於其不斷提升的產品能力。 此外,金蝶已建立的雲端及訂閱客戶基礎為通過AI功能進行交叉銷售和追加銷售奠定了堅實基礎。該行看好金蝶推廣以結果為導向的商業模式,即客戶為可見成果付費,而非僅為工具本身付費,並認為AI帶來的好處超出直接ARR貢獻。 瑞銀認為,以2026年企業價值與銷售比率(EV/Sales)5至6倍(歷史平均6至7倍)計算,金蝶的增長加速及盈利轉折尚未完全反映在股價中。瑞銀調整了淨利潤預測(2025年基數較低,上調83%;2027年基於更佳的雲端及訂閱收入假設,上調13%),並基於金蝶2026年8倍EV/Sales(此前基於分部加總估值),將金蝶目標價從11.4元升至21.8元,重申「買入」評級。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account