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宏利投資料美聯儲最快9月始降息 對中港股市看法轉趨「中性」
阿思達克 07-10 15:04
宏利投資亞洲區資產配置主管及高級組合經理Luke Browne表示,當前各國央行普遍正轉向更寬鬆的貨幣政策,全球經濟增長分化,保護主義抬頭,去全球化演進,加上地緣政治風險、關稅與全球供應鏈不確定性等,已成為了影響投資決策的關鍵因素。該行目前預測美國聯儲局將最快於今年9月或第四季起減息,但具體時間點預期將取決於經濟數據表現。 該行目前對股票持適度「增持」看法,此前為「中性」,認為貿易戰風險自4月初的高峰有所緩解,但全球增長放緩、貿易政策不確定性、通脹及估值偏高等因素仍存在。對於固定收益的配置取態則由「中性」降至「減持」。Browne指,貿易政策引發的通脹風險未消除,信貸利差收窄,因此建議減持長存續期債券。 宏利投資將美國、英國及日本以外亞太區股票的看法由「中性」調整為「增持」,對美國中小股型股份予「減持」,對香港及中國內地股市由「增持」看法轉為「中性」;對大宗商品交易相關股票維持「增持」,認為除原油及黃金等主要戰略大宗商品外,也可留意銅及鈾等長線主題。
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