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暴跌56%!三星Q2業績“崩了”

三星電子二季度業績"腰斬"。

7月8日,三星電子發佈了第二季度的業績指引,公司預計二季度營業利潤爲4.6萬億韓元,同比暴跌56%,環比下跌31.24%,創6個季度以來最低水平,大幅低於市場預期。

營業收入輕微下滑,爲74萬億韓元,同比僅微降0.1%

三星表示,其半導體業務所在的“設備解決方案”部門利潤出現環比下滑,主要因庫存價值調整以及美國對出口至中國的先進人工智能芯片的限制所致。

利潤“腰斬”,三重衝擊

1、高帶寬內存供應遇阻,錯失AI紅利

三星在高帶寬存儲芯片業務方面的困境,主要源於其最新版本HBM芯片遲遲未能獲得英偉達的性能認證,錯失了AI芯片熱潮。

儘管報道稱,三星一直在努力爭取其最新版本的HBM芯片獲得英偉達認證,但據當地媒體報道,該計劃已被推遲至至少9月。

不過,三星表示,其升級版HBM芯片目前正處於客戶評估階段,並已開始發貨,但並未透露客戶名稱。

NH Investment & Securities高級分析師Ryu Young-ho表示:

“HBM收入在第二季度可能持平,因爲對華銷售限制依然存在,而且三星尚未開始向英偉達供應其HBM3E 12層芯片。”

相比之下,規模較小的競爭對手SK海力士和美光科技則受益於HBM芯片的火爆需求。

上月,美光預計其季度營收將超出市場預期,原因是HBM芯片需求強勁;而作爲英偉達HBM主要供應商的SK海力士,預計將公佈創紀錄的季度利潤。

2、晶圓代工持續虧損

三星的代工業務也陷入困境。分析師估計,其2025年上半年在該領域虧損超過4萬億韓元,主要原因包括:

良率低,客戶信心不足;技術差距拉大,遠落後於臺積電;美國出口限制繼續打擊高端訂單。

3、美國芯片管制重擊中國市場

美國對中國AI芯片出口的限制同樣對其代工業務造成不利影響。不過三星預計隨着需求逐步回暖,下半年營業虧損將有所收窄。

“非存儲業務的盈利能力下降,主要源於銷售限制、由美國出口管制引發的庫存價值調整,以及持續較低的產能利用率。”公司補充道。

三星今年早些時候曾透露,其對華出口總值在2023至2024年間大增54%,因爲中國公司在美國日益嚴格的出口限制下加緊囤積先進AI芯片。

此外,美國加徵關稅也影響了三星電視和其他家電產品的銷售;與此同時,韓元兌美元今年以來已升值約7%,也削弱了三星在海外市場的價格競爭力。

爲了重奪智能手機市場份額,三星計劃本週在紐約發佈更輕薄的可摺疊手機。儘管全球摺疊屏手機出貨量去年增長了12%,達到1720萬部,但三星的市場份額從54%降至45%。

下半年觸底反彈?

儘管二季度表現疲軟,但分析師預測第三季度將出現反彈,受內存芯片價格回升的推動。

現代汽車證券首席研究員盧根昌 (Roh Geun-chang) 表示,“三星電子的營業利潤似乎已在第二季度觸底,預計將逐步改善”,並表示HBM銷量預計將會增長。

韓國投資證券(DS Investment & Securities)分析師在一份報告中指出:“目前最關鍵的是三星能否成功向英偉達供貨,以及整體芯片需求的復甦。但三星的盈利很可能在第二季度觸底,第三季度開始反彈。”

該公司將於本月晚些時候發佈最終盈利報告。

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