《大行》高盛:受關稅影響銅價飆升至歷史新高 維持年底銅價每噸9,700美元預測
高盛發表報告指,美國總統特朗普宣佈對銅進口徵收50%關稅,遠超市場此前預期的25%,引發市場劇烈反應。美國COMEX銅價當日盤中飆升17%,觸及歷史高點每磅5.9美元(每噸13,000美元)。
該行認爲,50%銅關稅看似激進,但可能作爲談判籌碼,後續或有減免或豁免,如同此前關稅政策。市場目前對2025年12月合約預計有效關稅約30%。隨着50%關稅風險上升,預計未來幾周美國銅進口將加速,以搶在關稅實施前囤貨。
高盛維持2025年12月LME銅價預測爲每噸9,700美元,但第三季突破每噸10,000美元的風險降低。非美國市場供應仍緊張,美國庫存減少及全球市場緊張緩解將從第三季末逐步顯現。
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