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《大行》高盛:中國生物醫藥產品出海授權趨勢屬結構性 升中生(01177.HK)目標價至6.19元
阿思達克 07-09 16:26
高盛發表中國醫藥產行業報告,中國生物科技企業的產品出海授權趨勢推動上半年股價表現強勁(今年以來股價已累升78%,相較中國離岸及在岸醫療保健股各累升41%及2%(對比MSCI中國指數累升18%),近期市場對交易持續性及估值可持續性的討論開始浮現。該行認為經過對授權交易及中國創新藥管線在全球背景下的深入分析,該行認為這是一場結構性轉變,而非短暫反彈。 該行指,產品授權、併購及新公司設立的成熟路徑將進一步釋放上行潛力:1)截至2025年中期,中國約佔全球臨床試驗管線的三分之一,及上半年進入人體研究的創新藥候選物約佔50%;2)在可能定義未來標準治療的新型療法中,中國企業在ADC(抗體藥物複合體)、BsAb/TCE等領域主導管線,或在siRNA(小分子干擾核糖核酸)、PROTAC(蛋白降解靶向嵌合體)等領域成為重要新興參與者;3)全球社群對中國數據的關注度增加,中國至全球數據的轉化性也在改善。 就下一波焦點:高盛指中國創新藥資產日益獲得全球企業的認可,中國生物科技出海業務拓展交易持續增長。從治療領域看,腫瘤學/肥胖症是當前焦點,該行預計中國的免疫學管線將持續增長。在療法類型方面,ADC/BsAb是中國的關鍵差異化優勢(佔出海授權交易的1/3),而siRNA/PROTAC管線可能是下一個交易的潛力領域。 基於該行對行業因素業務拓展框架,引入新的「許可成功概率」(PoLS)框架,評估中國生物科技/製藥管線,以更好地反映潛在的出海價值(主要通過合作實現)。 該行認為夏季是積累高質量創新藥股票的機會,因數據披露較少,股價可能在當前水平徘徊。該行長期看好領先的生物科技公司(百濟神州(06160.HK)、信達生物(01801.HK)、科倫博泰(06990.HK)),並強調三家公司在2025年下半年具潛在顯著上行空間的公司,信達生物(BTK於SLE的Ph2b數據將於年底公布;免疫學管線具備TYK2、BTK於MS的授權潛力)、再鼎醫藥(09688.HK)(DLL3 ADC DoR更新、一線聯合數據、艾加莫德(Efgar)銷售增長)、Legend Biotech Corporation (LEGN.US)(Carvykti銷售增長,2025年底前一線MM初步數據)。 高盛調整中資醫藥股目標價,維持中生製藥(01177.HK)「買入」評級,目標價由3.92元上調至6.19元;維持翰森製藥(03692.HK)「買入」評級,目標價由22.71元上調至34.83元;維持信達生物「買入」評級,目標價由74.95元上調至96.22元;基石藥業(02616.HK)評級由「中性」升至「買入」,目標價由2.77元上調至6.25元。
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