恆生投資料美聯儲最快10月減息 對美股看法持平
恆生投資投資總監蘇浩程指出,美國5月及6月消費者信心指數、通脹預期、企業樂觀指數等軟數據均有所改善,失業率、PMI等保持韌性,企業盈利預期亦轉好,惟經濟增長仍存在不確定性,地緣政治緊張局勢及關稅政策變化值得關注,因此目前對美國市場看法持平中性。
市場預期美國減息兩次,他透露,目前恆生投資預測美聯儲首次減息將延後至10月,視乎市況發展,今年第二次減息或會在12月才發生。
至於中國市場,他指出,內地經濟增長穩定,年內已實施19項支持措施,因此對未來當局持續出臺刺激政策持觀望態度。中國企業利潤同樣改善,蘇氏認爲長期發展趨勢正支持企業成長,對中國市場看法持平;恆指估值目前處於合理水平,建議投資者避開受貿易戰及關稅政策影響的行業,投資於內需及必需品消費板塊將較能管理風險。
該行看好歐股及日股,認爲日本正退出超寬鬆貨幣政策及優質上市企業吸引外資投資,同時歐洲央行保持寬鬆立場及有利財政政策,相信將有助歐股應對短期風險。至於債券,該行較偏好美元國債及亞洲投資級別債券。
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