大摩料關稅問題短期為市場帶來噪音 料將對主要貿易夥伴延長期限
摩根士丹利策略師發表報告,預期美國總統特朗普政府或延長暫停對等關稅期限,為談判爭取更多時間。但該行指,白宮已表明在關稅問題上傾向使用「大棒」而非「胡蘿蔔」,顯示市場應為更多噪音,甚至可能更多波動做好準備,直到塵埃落定。
該行基準情景為美國將以雙邊談判取得進展為由,對多數主要貿易夥伴延長期限,並可能伴隨宣布與某些貿易夥伴達成高層次協議,同時對其他貿易夥伴設定某個日期提高關稅。該行又預計,美國或在談判進展足夠的領域放寬某些關稅,或對其他領域發出即將提高關稅信號。如談判受挫,關稅可能會選擇性地實施,並採用分階段時間表,特別是與歐盟或日本,使其在宣布更強硬立場後仍留有修復空間。
該行亦指,美國政府亦可能宣布區域性或雙邊貿易框架,提供明確性並在短期內保持較低的實際關稅稅率。減少進口成本不確定性,並為市場提供紓緩。
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