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《大行》里昂:對極兔速遞(01519.HK)東南亞市場有信心 升目標價至8.9元
阿思達克 07-09 10:45
里昂發表研究報告指,極兔速遞-W(01519.HK)在今年第二季度於東南亞、中國內地及新市場的包裹量按年各增長66%、15%及24%,這主要得益於電商平台(如TikTok Shop、Temu和Shein)促銷力度加大與產品多樣化,以及極兔速遞透過降價策略取得的市場份額提升。 該行認為,東南亞市場具有人口紅利優勢,預期電商平台將持續加大資源投入以推動銷售,為極兔速遞在該區域帶來持續成長動能,且憑藉其在中國市場累積的規模和營運經驗,預計能有效降低成本,維持穩定的單位盈利能力,並加速市場份額擴大。因此里昂調升了極兔速遞2025至2027年的包裹量預測,分別提高7%、13%和15% 鑒於東南亞市場包裹量強勁增長的勢頭,里昂預期極兔速遞早東南亞業務將貢獻更大比例的利潤。儘管因競爭加劇,里昂下調了極兔速遞在中國業務的包裹量預測及單位盈利能力改善趨勢。整體而言,里昂預測東南亞的強勁增長可抵消中國業務的影響,並將2025年、2026年和2027年淨利預測分別上調6%、10%、10%。 里昂表示基於極兔速遞2026年調整後淨利,採用不變的東南亞和中國業務目標市盈率18倍、11倍,將極兔速遞目標價從每股8.1元升至8.9元,重申「跑贏大市」評級。
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