《大行》高盛降中國飛鶴(06186.HK)目標價至6.4元 削銷售預測
高盛研究報告指,中國飛鶴(06186.HK)發盈警,預計上半年收入按年跌7.9%至9.9%至91億至93億元人民幣,淨利潤按年下降36%至46.7%至10億至12億元人民幣,低於該行預期,認爲其表現疲弱主要由於向消費者提供的育兒補貼、渠道庫存減少及政府補貼減少等。飛鶴預計今年收入將實現低個位數按年增長(意味着下半年銷售增長目標介乎7%至十幾個百分點),預計渠道庫存調整將於第三季完成。
考慮到飛鶴盈警,高盛將其2025至2027年的銷售預測下調約7%,並下調毛利率預估,同時提高銷售費用比率預測;經常性淨利潤預測下調17%至20%,當中扣除其他非營運損失但包括政府補貼,同時對政府補貼預測下調約3.4億至4億元人民幣。
此外,該行目前預計,隨着非經營性項目(如資產減值損失)趨於正常化,飛鶴2026年淨利潤增長約30%以上;或在新生兒補貼影響正常化推動下(2025年爲12億元人民幣),公司明年持續經營淨利潤增長約達 12%。
高盛將飛鶴的目標價由7.4元下調至6.4元,基於2026年預測市盈率13.5倍不變,另估計今年股息率達4.3%,維持對其「買入」評級。
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