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摩通私銀看好黃金 科技與金融板塊仍具吸引力
阿思達克 07-07 11:28
摩根大通私人銀行全球市場策略師王然表示,雖然地緣政治與政策議題持續成爲焦點,市場反應卻相對冷靜。近日的地緣事件再次提醒市場,它們對市場的長遠影響往往有限。地緣局勢不明下,油價仍在回落,股市則繼續創新高。黃金方面,看好其作爲地緣對衝工具與美元走弱的受惠資產。 該行指,實時經濟與通脹數據表現理想,不過貿易政策的影響需時反映。預期關稅及「解放日」的情緒衝擊將於未來數月對經濟造成更明顯影響。維持下半年經濟增長放緩的預期,但不預計出現衰退。同時密切關注就業市場的韌性,視之爲經濟強弱的重要指標。隨着貿易談判取得進展,全球經濟的下行風險有所緩解,對中國的增長預期亦上調。美元則料持續偏軟。 該行指,即使股市處於歷史高位,歷史顯示這正是入市的良機。目前接近對標普500的年底基本情境目標,但仍看到在科技與金融等高信心板塊中的具吸引力機會。AI故事強勢迴歸,大型科技公司積極推進基建投資,帶動軟件、公用事業等行業受惠。金融板塊方面,潛在的監管放寬有望釋放資金,加快放貸、併購活動及提升股東回報。
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