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OPEC+大轉向,考慮加快增產步伐,全球石油過剩危機加劇?

石油生產商實行策略大轉向。

當地時間週六,OPEC+代表們在一次線上會議上表示,他們正在考慮以比預期更快的速度恢復石油產量。

一位代表透露,八個主要OPEC成員國目前正在考慮將日產量提高50萬桶以上。

另一位代表表示,這將使OPEC+能夠在9月之前完全恢復此前暫停的220萬桶/日產量,比原本的計劃更加提前。

捍衞價格→爭奪市場份額

自4月以來,OPEC及其合作伙伴已從多年的產量限制轉向重新開放產量,這令原油交易商感到意外,並引發了人們對其長期戰略的質疑。

過去三個月,沙特阿拉伯指導OPEC將日產量增加了41.1萬桶。目前,該組織在考慮8月進一步增產。

儘管全球供應過剩的風險仍可能進一步打壓油價,但這一強硬的策略還是要出台,這將允許OPEC+從其他產油國手中奪回市場份額

在週六的會議上,與會代表列舉了一系列轉變的動機,包括滿足夏季燃料需求高峯,抑制部分成員國的過度生產,以及從美國頁巖油生產商等競爭對手手中奪回市場份額。

對此,Onyx Capital Group研究主管Harry Tchilinguirian表示:“鑑於OPEC+已從捍衞價格策略轉向市場份額,維持名義上的自願減產可能毫無意義。最好的辦法或許是儘快結束減產,然後繼續前進。

面臨供給過剩危機

近期,以色列與石油巨頭伊朗之間的衝突暫休,中東能源出口基本未受影響,國際油價有所下跌。

週五,倫敦布倫特原油期貨價格徘徊在每桶68美元附近,並在過去兩週內累計下跌了13%。

油價下跌對美國總統特朗普來説是一個好消息,他認為降低油價是減輕通脹衝擊消費者成本的一種方式。

不過,如果OPEC+的增產快於預期,這將進一步加劇石油的供給過剩危機。

近幾個月來,隨着中國需求下降,以及從美國、圭亞那到加拿大和巴西等美洲各國的石油產量攀升,全球石油庫存一直以每天約100萬桶的速度增加。

國際能源署預計,石油市場今年晚些時候將出現相當大的過剩。

在此背景下,摩根大通、高盛等華爾街大行預測,到第四季度,油價可能跌至每桶60美元或更低。

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