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《大行》瑞銀: 美越貿易協定20%輸美商品關稅 處於預期低端
阿思達克 07-03 12:21
瑞銀表示,美國總統特朗普其社交媒體上宣布,他已與越南達成貿易協定,條件是越南將為所有輸美商品支付20%關稅,為任何轉運貿易支付40%關稅。對此,瑞銀投資銀行高級亞洲及中國經濟學家鄧維慎表示,20%的整體關稅處於當地預期的低端,越南將進一步開放對美國的市場准入,基本在意料之中。 據外電引述特朗普稱,越南將採取前所未有的舉措,讓美國完全進入其市場。換句話說,越南將向美國開放市場,這意味著美國能以零關稅將產品銷往越南。他認為,在美國熱銷的SUV,將成為越南國內各類產品線的有力補充。 美國和越南自4月初起進行貿易協定談判。根據瑞銀在越南獲得的一手回饋,在貿易談判期間,越南當地社區預計整體關稅稅率在20%至25%之間。從這個角度看,20%的整體關稅處於預期範圍的低端。另一方面,彭博之前發布的一篇報道稱,越南價值量高的產品將面臨較低關稅,越南價值量為100%的產品將面臨低至10%的關稅。瑞銀認為貿易協定的細節對於確定越南所受的經濟影響至關重要;而截至香港時間7月3日清晨,美國和越南均未公佈完整的官方檔。瑞銀認為鑒於貿易協定的複雜性,公布全部細節可能需要一些時間。 瑞銀提及,美國於4月2日宣布「對等關稅」之前,越南已開始降低進口關稅(比如,自3月31日起,越南將汽車進口關稅從50%降至30%,將LNG進口關稅從5%降至2%)。在貿易談判期間,眾多報道稱越南將降低對美國產品的進口關稅,尤其是汽車等關鍵產品,越南將增加對美國能源產品的採購。瑞銀從越南企業得到的回饋也顯示,越南將大幅簡化美國公司在越南經營的行政程式。因此,迄今公布的有關越南進一步降低對美關稅,和進一步放開美國產品市場准入的細節與預期基本一致。據瑞銀評估,放開技術、能源等領域的美國產品市場准入將有利於越南的增長。降低汽車關稅也利好越南消費者。瑞銀認為未來的關注重點是是否有進一步向美國和國際資本開放金融市場的任何細節。 歸為「轉運」的產品關稅稅率設定在40%,這高於對大多數其他經濟體的初始「對等關稅」。因此,瑞銀認為,確定被視為轉運或「越南製造」貨物的規則和框架細節至關重要。還需注意的是越南及其他一些東盟經濟體近幾個月已收緊簽發原產地證書。 瑞銀續指,未來需注意的另一個關鍵點是特定商品豁免清單。由於越南對消費電子產品的敞口較大,美國海關和邊境保護局於4月11日宣布的豁免,將針對越南的加權平均加徵關稅降至9%左右,遠低於最初宣布的43%。據報道,從越南採購大量產品的國際鞋類品牌已申請關稅豁免。從歷史上看,企業申請關稅豁免往往會給宏觀關稅形勢帶來重大變化。根據目前的「232」關稅豁免清單,並假設越南對美其餘出口產品的95%面臨20%關稅,瑞銀的初步估計得出美國對越南的加徵關稅約為16%,仍遠低於美國對華出口近30%的加徵關稅。
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