京基證券：維持買入五菱汽車(0305.HK)建議，目標價維持於0.81港元
京基證券：五菱汽車(0305.HK)——前沿新能源車供應鏈企業
· 中汽協預測2025年全國汽車總銷量將達3,290.0萬輛，同比增長4.7%。其中新能源汽車總銷量預計約1,600.0萬輛，同比增長24.4%。
· 五菱汽車的主要客户如上汽通用五菱、比亞迪及吉利於2025年1-5月產銷量均錄得高雙位數增長，基於回補甚至增加庫存及迎合增量需求，其主要客户今年的動力系統及零部件需求大增，定必推動五菱汽車的銷售。
· 按國家統計局數據，2024年中國汽車零部件市場規模達46,200.0億人民幣。Investingcom預測2025-2030年期間，中國汽車零部件市場規模將以複合式年增長率9.4%，增至2030年的7.5萬億元。而五菱汽車所佔當中市場份額不足0.2%，增長潛力無可限量。
· 新能源商用化場景是新能源車領域的風口，預測2024年至2030年中國新能源商用車銷量複合式年增長率將達31.5%至3.1百萬輛。五菱已於新能源商用市場站穩，是本地市場大部份頭部新能源商用車主機廠的供應商及合作伙伴。
· 持股20.875%的五菱新能源於2025年首季銷量同比增長93.0%至4,000台以上；更創下單月及單日最高銷量超過2,000台及300台以上。五菱新能源在2024年1月完成了A輪融資，若其上市或以更高估值私募融資，其股東持股的價值將得以提升，並推動五菱汽車估值。
· 五菱在其自主研發的線控底盤平台及菱御2.0智能駕駛系統基礎上，推出了自動移動儲能充電車、自動移動智能補給站及智能載具五菱太空艙等智能自動駕駛載具。其線控底盤已模塊及平台化，可通過開放通用協議及配搭不同硬件，應付不同使用場景發展多種智能自動駕駛載具產品。
· 估計五菱汽車FY24A-FY27F股東應占溢利3年複合式年增長率將達59.5%。
· 按每股股價0.425港於算，五菱汽車的FY25E及FY26FPE分別為16.0倍及11.6倍，其PE/G及P/S分別低至0.36倍及0.14倍，而其現股價較其FY24A及FY25F每股帳面值分別折讓35.0%及36.4%。對照其本身10年平均PE25.1倍、中國汽車零部件坂塊預測本年及來年PE分別為20.6倍及20.4倍，以及中國汽車零部件坂塊PE/G0.8倍，五菱汽車估值過低，並未反映其業務規模、実質價值及增長潛力。
· 按五菱汽車FY25FPEG0.7x，我們維持買入五菱汽車建議，目標價維持於0.81港元。其於2024年12月底持淨現金達6.3億人民幣，具備增派股息或回購股份的財務資源。
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