《大行》高盛將聯儲局降息預測提前至9月 10月和12月再各減息25點子
高盛表示,將下一次美國聯儲局降息預測提前至9月,因爲初步證據顯示關稅影響略小於預期,其他通縮力量更強,該行認爲聯儲局官員與該行持相同觀點,即關稅僅對價格水平產生一次性影響。該行預計9月、10月和12月各降息25個基點,2026年仍預計再降息兩次各25個基點,因此將終端利率預測下調至3%至3.25%。
高盛表示,近期中東衝突提醒該行,新的政策衝擊可能浮現,但除非最壞結果發生,否則這些衝擊可能爲市場創造一道「擔憂之牆」供其攀登。隨着市場再次放鬆,其他風險可能重新成爲焦點:新的關稅消息、美國經濟增長及就業數據更明顯的疲軟,或即將推出的財政方案。該行對一些關鍵中期趨勢仍最有信心。認爲美元走弱的路徑將持續。歐元仍是明顯的投資工具,但若人民幣變動爲美元更廣泛下行開啓大門,或作爲美國衰退風險重現的對衝,日圓也可能重新受到關注。
高盛指出,自4月底以來,市場已上調增長預期,同時預期聯儲局更爲鴿派。夏季強勁的勞動市場數據和較高的通脹數據,可能對市場已定價的寬鬆構成挑戰,但若再有一兩個月的溫和通脹數據,市場可能有更多空間進一步推進。在「鴿派政策加正面增長衝擊」情景下,股市上行顯然是最佳表現方式;而在「鴿派政策加負面增長衝擊」情景下,債券收益率下行顯然是最佳表現方式。市場轉向預期聯儲局更多寬鬆可能強化美元走弱和收益率曲線陡化,這兩個中期趨勢該行認爲出於其他原因也可能實現。
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