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《大行》匯豐研究:小米(01810.HK)Yu7訂單遠超預期 升目標價至80.4元
阿思達克 07-02 15:34
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,小米集團-W(01810.HK)公布其首款電動車SUV—Yu7的車型和定價後,引發了強烈的訂單反應,遠超市場預期及同期競爭車型(AITO M8為2萬份)。 該行預測,到2025年9月,Yu7累計交付量約為5萬輛,並將在2025年第四季度實現正常化的月度出貨率(超過2萬輛/月)。因此,匯豐將2025至2027年Yu7出貨量預測從10萬、24.7萬、34.9萬上調至11萬、38.1萬、55.7萬,並因新車型需求旺盛而下調Su7和Su7 Ultra的出貨量預測。 此外,匯豐環球研究又認為,小米智能手機與物聯網業務勢頭穩健。考慮到2025年下半年補貼減少的背景下,該行指對小米物聯網業務展望略為保守,並使用折現現金流法(DCF)對其電動車業務進行估值。 該行表示,將小米目標價從76.6元上調至80.4元,較當前水平隱含約36%的上行空間;維持對該股的「買入」評級。另基於對小米電動車出貨量和平均售價(ASP)的更樂觀看法,將2025至2027年淨利潤預測分別上調1%、4%、6%。該行指繼續採用總和估值法(SOTP)對小米進行估值;對傳統業務應用28倍目標市盈率(之前為30倍)。
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