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《大行》交銀國際:港股正處多重利好共振有利窗口期 科技板塊或成重要引擎
交銀國際發表港股策略報告表示,在恆指已接近前高的背景下,利用擁擠度指標來探析港股的進一步上漲空間。該行在2025下半年宏觀策略展望中指出,海外宏觀風險將有所收斂,而海內外流動性環境邊際寬鬆的態勢有望爲港股提供良好的上行基礎。在當前時點,港股已具備突破橫盤行情的條件,僅待關鍵催化因素出現,而綜合擁擠度指標有助於探尋更大上漲彈性的領域。 從擁擠度價量維度分析:價格維度顯示恆指當前價格偏離程度位於歷史70%至80%區間,處於偏擁擠位置,而恆生科技指數則回落至50%至60%的均衡狀態;量能維度顯示港股整體交易情緒保持相對積極,但科技板塊交易活躍度明顯不足,成交額與換手率均回落至歷史分位數40%左右水平,反映市場缺乏明確的方向性預期,普遍處於觀望狀態。量價相關性自6月以來從底部區域明顯回升,預示市場上行動能正在逐步積蓄,港股正處於從盤整向上突破的過渡期。 交銀國際指,板塊層面擁擠度呈現明顯分化格局:醫藥生物板塊量價指標均已攀升至歷史相對高位,擁擠度偏高且上行空間可能受限。交運、能源、傳媒、非銀金融等板塊量價保持向上態勢,銀行等傳統高股息板塊在地緣因素催化下交易活躍度提升但價格漲幅有限,擁擠度水平適中。半導體、硬件設備、軟件服務、電信、家電、零售等板塊擁擠度顯着回落,向上彈性空間充足。 該行指,港股正處於多重利好因素共振的有利窗口期,科技板塊有望成爲下一輪上漲行情的重要引擎:(1)外部環境趨於穩定。地緣局勢總體可控,外溢風險相對有限。關稅談判暫停至7、8月份,期間爲市場提供了緩衝期。當前美國與非美國家的關稅談判似乎陷入僵局狀態,短期內達成大規模貿易協議的可能性並不高,關稅問題繼續推遲並逐漸弱化的可能性較大。與此同時,特朗普政策重心正因減稅法案等內政議題而出現「由外向內」切換,進一步降低了外部政策衝擊的可能性。 (2)流動性環境較佳。港股市場流動性在短期內十分充裕,儘管這種狀態在中期可能較難持續,但短期內仍可爲港股上漲提供充足的動能。且近期新股上市活躍,持續爲市場注入新的投資主題和情緒催化劑。(3)風險情緒的改善和流動性的充裕爲下一階段科技股上漲行情提供了必要的基礎條件,目前僅待敘事主題催化。 港股當前的適度的擁擠度狀態爲投資者提供了較爲理想的配置窗口,特別是在科技板塊估值壓力充分釋放的背景下,交銀國際認爲港股從結構性行情向更爲廣泛的全面上漲轉換,仍需要更加強有力的基本面支撐以及政策催化因素,以推動市場情緒的全面回暖和參與度的明顯提升。而一旦催化條件得以滿足,港股便有望實現從橫盤整理向趨勢性上漲的有效轉換。
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