郭家耀:觀望外圍貿易談判 港股短期或反覆
港灣家族辦公室業務發展總監郭家耀稱,美股上週五(27日)表現向好,美國最新通脹數據顯示當地物價仍然受控,標普500指數及納指創出歷史高位,三大指數均錄得升幅收市。美元低位略爲反彈,美國十年期債息回升至4.27釐水平,金價及油價繼續調整。港股預託證券表現個別發展,預料大市早段缺乏方向。
內地股市上週五走勢向下,滬綜指高開低走,收市下跌0.7%,滬深兩市成交額繼續活躍。
港股上週五好淡爭持,指數一度逼近23,500點水平,其後反覆回落,收市錄得溫和跌幅,整體成交繼續活躍。市場觀望外圍貿易談判消息,短期大市或有反覆,預料指數繼續於23,800至24,800點水平徘徊。
另內地債息持續下跌,內地保險公司需尋找高收益資產匹配其保單負債,中國平安(02318.HK)近年頻頻增持內銀股,據報道指出,由今年初至今,平保累計新增買入1,800億元內銀H股。平保持有工行(01398.HK)H股比例約18%,農行(01288.HK)和招行(03968.HK)的H股持股比例亦分別超過15%,另持有郵儲行(01658.HK)逾12%及建行(00939.HK)5%。現時中國10年期國債息約1.65釐,相比之下,內銀股息率更爲豐厚,招行現價股息率約3.8釐、農行約4.5釐,其他內銀股息率更超過5釐,由於H股較A股一般有折讓,令內銀H股變得更爲吸引。保險公司的保單要應付分紅,銷售保單後屬於負債,需尋找資產回報匹配。
中國平安表示由於銀行股具「類固收」屬性,被投銀行具國家信用、低波動、高分紅等特點,有可觀息差收入。平保又提到,集團高度關注集中風險,高分紅組合除了銀行股之外亦有其他行業標的,同時堅持成長股和高分紅價值股並重。預料內地保險業的機構投資者均面對同樣情況,對配置高派息的中特估有熱切需求,帶動相關股份後市向好。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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