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《大行》花旗:內銀下跌空間有限 薦建行(00939.HK)工行(01398.HK)民行(01988.HK)北京銀行(601169.SH)
花旗表示,儘管面臨基本面壓力,自2022年1月以來,中國銀行股仍跑贏滬深300指數及恆生指數65個百分點和59個百分點,因投資者在通縮環境下偏好股息收益率投資,推動了來自保險公司及家庭的資金流入。與此同時,「國家隊」也購入指數權重較高的銀行股,以穩定市場信心。為吸引家庭投資進入A股市場並創造財富效應,監管機構推出了一系列支持資本市場的政策。 該行看到多重催化劑將加速共同基金和保險公司對股市的投資,並推動家庭資產向股票重新配置,特別是大盤ETF及高收益率股票,利好指數權重高且高股息的中國金融機構。儘管2025年第二季度預計業績可能平淡,但花旗認為中國銀行股下行空間有限,因股價任何修正可能導致更高的股息收益率,促使投資者重新審視/底部撈底中國銀行股。 花旗表示內銀首選包括建行(00939.HK)及工行(01398.HK)I因高股息收益率;民生銀行(01988.HK)因潛在的業績反彈及長城資產管理公司的買入資金流消息;北京銀行(601169.SH)年內表現落後,估值不高,高股息收益率及持倉比重低等。 花旗指出,保險公司也是共同基金改革的主要受益者,結合強勁的新業務增長、投資回報提升、監管順風及低估值。該行偏好中國平安(601318.SH),因其為A股中第二大低配股份。
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