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華泰證券:重視生豬預期差,後周期關注飼料龍頭年後豬價持續強於預期
格隆匯 06-27 08:40
華泰證券發佈農業板塊中期策略稱,重視生豬預期差,後周期關注飼料龍頭年後豬價持續強於預期。5月下旬以來豬價中樞開始震盪下移,我們預計短期養殖端降重出欄可能加速、行業庫存或對應加速釋放,Q3末及Q4供應壓力或相應略有緩解,疊加9月前後逐步進入豬肉消費季節性旺季,下半年豬價表現有望超預期。25H2豬價表現或超預期+頭部豬企成本持續改善,豬企盈利表現或超預期,建議關注成本優勢、盈利兑現能力較強的豬企。今年以來水產價格有所上升、水產投苗量的連續兩年下降有望支撐升價持續,從而帶動水產料景氣回升;今年以來生豬養殖行業存欄量回升且養殖盈利較佳利好後周期飼料行業景氣修復,推薦國內飼料主業或受益於行業景氣回升及成本優勢持續修復、同時海外飼料業務有望延續量利雙增的飼料龍頭。
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