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渣打劉健恆:只要美港利差保持較大 金管局未來數週內可能斷續出現進一步市場幹預
阿思達克 06-26 18:18
渣打大中華及北亞區高級經濟師劉健恆表示,港元數週來一直徘徊在弱方兌換保證門檻附近,因此此次香港金管局的幹預爲市場所充分預期,並未令人意外。 該行認爲,只要美港利差保持較大,未來數週內可能斷續出現進一步的市場幹預,套利交易將持續推高美元兌港元至7.85。每當香港金管局扞衛7.85的匯率,銀行體系結餘將進一步下降,此過程將持續重複,直到套利回報不再具吸引力,美元兌港元纔會徹底(或至少在本週期內)遠離7.85。 該行認爲,三個月美國隔夜逆回購利率(SOFR)與HIBOR的利差應至少回到100至150個基點的範圍(目前爲260個基點)。假設在聯儲短期內不大幅降息的情況下,三個月SOFR將維持在4%或以上,這意味着三個月HIBOR將朝2.5%至3%的範圍前進。在此過程中,該行認爲銀行體系結餘可能回落至約800至1,000億港元的水平。由於近期股票和房地產市場活動略有改善,因此無需重新測試先前低點450億港元即可收緊HIBOR。 三個月HIBOR達到該水平的時間難以精確預測,因爲這在很大程度上取決於投資者因套利考量而持續推弱港元的意願。劉健恆認爲這更可能是2025年第三季度的事。 總體而言,該行認爲這是港元聯繫匯率自我修正大幅利差的健康運作。
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